The production of crops and livestock other than pigs in subsaharan africa is typically located in semiarid regions barrios et al. Central africa, for the most part, is landlocked and is geographically threatened by climate change. Atmosphere is the blanket of air that surrounds the earth, moving both. Evaluating successful livelihood adaptation to climate. Climate change impacts and adaptation in south africa. Ipcc 2007 has shown that the african continent is the most vulnerable continent to climate change. Country fact sheet 2 climate summary south sudan has a humid equatorial climate characterized by. Wires climate change climate change impacts in south africa a climate change. Evaluating successful livelihood adaptation to climate variability and change in southern africa henny osbahr 1, chasca twyman 2, w. Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in. Climate change and variability in subsaharan africa. Effects of climatic variability and change climate change, human communities, and forests in rural, urban, and wildlandurban interface environments adaptation and mitigation improving scientific knowledge future assessment activities conclusions.
Understanding the risks draft policy note draft november 2010 document of the world bank this document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. The climatic commonality throughout the region is the frequent occurrence of drought severe enough to incapacitate the population. This book presents a comprehensive overview of climate variability and change in africa, and includes impact assessments and case studies from integration frameworks, with a particular focus on climate, agriculture and water resources. Analysis of climate change and variability risks in the smallholder sector communities in the fragile ecosystems of narok and laikipia districts in kenya. Many climate models predict negative impacts of climate change on agricultural. Climate variability and change in africa university staff profiles. These species compose some of the worlds most diverse and biologically. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change. The study has outlined climate change vulnerability issues based on models and scenarios developed for different agroecological zones.
We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. How could climate change impact food security in africa. In this study, we examine climateconflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. Our empirical analysis does not produce evidence for the claim that climate variability affects economic growth.
Th e actual and potential impacts of climate change in africa are large and wide ranging, aff ecting many aspects of peoples everyday lives. Annual rainfall ranging from 200 mm in the southeast to 1,2002,200 mm in the forest zone in western equatoria and the equatorian highlands. The production of subtropical fruits, including avocado, in south africa is also expected to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Water resources are subjected to high hydroclimatic variability over space and time, and are a key constraint on the continents continued economic development. Climate variability and conflict risk in east africa, 1990.
Coping with climate variability in limpopo province, south africa. In the northern states, rainfall varies between 700 and 1,300 mm. Within the earths atmosphereocean system, the variability of primary climate variables e. The global mean temperature in this region is to increase by 1. Analysis of climate variability and change as a basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies requires longterm observations. Pdf climate change and variability in subsaharan africa. In this regard, drought has been a factor for thousands of years. Smallscale farmers efforts to adapt have shown both unfavourable and positive effects and hence the need to be explored. Africa climate change research climate variability desertification landuse change. Climate variability and change in africa springerlink. Climate change is a major concern worldwide, given its projected impact on agricultural production, especially in semiarid environments.
We estimate the effects of climate variability and change on agricultural revenues of smallscale farmers in kenya. Collins university of south florida, department of geography, environment, and planning, tampa, florida manuscript received 26 march 2010, in. This paper examines the success of smallscale farming livelihoods in adapting to climate variability and change. In simpler terms, variability is the range of climate compared to its average. Pdf facing climate variability in subsaharan africa. In the literature, a lot of information is available about climate change perceptions and impacts in subsaharan africa. Various linear statistical tools were used to study the electricity consumption trends in south africa, the soi trends and variability, the annual temperature distribution over the country. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for east africa from 1990 to 2009.
This study therefore examined the smallscale farmers adaptation strategies to climate. Climate variability and impact in assars east african region. How to manage climate variability effectively climate variability is the principal cause of changes in food production, both in south africa and globally. Climate change i climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in zimbabwe i iied climate change working paper no. Climate change and variability national centers for. Linkea, arlene laingb, andrew gettelmanc, and jimy dudhiab ainstitute of behavioral science and department of geography, university of colorado, boulder, co 803090483. Climate change adaptation strategies in subsaharan africa. Pdf weather and climate in africa download full pdf. Module 1 understanding climate variability and climate change. We use a balanced panel household data set collected in 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2010 from eight agroregional zones and climate data from 1980 to 2010.
Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern africa sharon e. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without world bank authorization. This has led developing countries to heavily rely on foreign aid in the form of food handouts to avert hunger. In south africa, it is increasingly apparent that delays in responding to climate change over the past decades have jeopardized human life and livelihoods.
Globally, the response to climate change is gradually gaining momentum as the impacts of climate change unfold. The effects of climate change and variability on food. Pdf coping with climate variability in limpopo province. The impact of climate change on human security in the sahel region of africa. Climate variability and maize yield in south africa. Climate variability and extremes, in part due to climate change, is a present and growing threat to food security and nutrition in africa and is a particularly severe threat to countries relying. The outcomes of lack of investment and low production of rainfed agriculture reinforce each. Subsaharan africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and. Climate is defined as longterm averages and variations in weather measured over a period of several decades. Climate variability versus climate change farmers weekly. Effects of climate variability and change on agricultural. Sensitizing the asareca strategic plan to climate change, research report 22, international livestock research institute ilri, nairobi, kenya.
It focuses on two complementary timescales, the holocene approximately the last 11,500 years and the last glacialinterglacial cycle approximately the. While slow progress with mitigation, especially in the energy sector, has garnered much attention, focus is now shifting to. In general, plant richness in south africa may be correlated with climatic variables and environmental variability at both regional cowling et al. Climate change will amplify existing stress on water availability in africa high confidence. Much of the work done at iri is related to climate variability, which is defined by the world meteorological organization as variations in the mean state and other statistics of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales, beyond individual weather events. Climate change is inevitably resulting in changes in climate variability and in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events. Climate change and climatic variability in west africa. The paper examines the widespread effects of climate change and variability on food security in zimbabwe. Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern. Donnish journal of african studies and development, 12, 914. Enabling adaptation to climate variability and change across subsaharan africa.
No country or human being can be free from the impacts of climate change including animals. Changes in climate variability and extremes can be visualized in relation to changes in probability distributions, shown in fig. Pdf future climate variation is an issue of concern both internationally and locally. It alters the composition of the global andor regional atmosphere and natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Climate change has posed a serious threat on food security in developing countries in africa. Africas already high rates of undernutrition and infectious disease can be expected to increase compared to a scenario without climate change. The primary objective of this thesis is to model the effects on agricultural production and household welfare of an objectivelymeasured, severe rain shortfall in a droughtprone region of. Analysis of climate variability and droughts in east. However, the limited availability of ground station data constrains studies focusing on detecting variability and changes in climate and drought monitoring, particularly in developing countries of east africa. Many aspects of the global climate are changing rapidly, and the primary drivers of that change are human in origin. However, there is limited attention in the region to emerging initiatives, technologies and policies that are tailored to.
Pdf climate variability and maize yield in south africa. The impact of climate variability and change on economic. Due to its high climate variability and rainfed agriculture, central africa is expected to experience longer and more frequent heatwaves as well as an increase in wet extremes. Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict. The influence of climate variability and climate change on the agricultural sector in east and central africa. Climate changevariability impacts on farmers livelihoods. Past climate variability through europe and africa. Other future challenges to freshwater availability in africa. Policy and governance agricultural policy frameworks and processes for climate change adaptation. Pdf enabling adaptation to climate variability and. The earths climate system includes the land surface, atmosphere, oceans, and ice. In south africa, climate variability has been responsible for periods of surplus. Climate change i climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in zimbabwe i i iied climate change working paper no. Over the next three decades, climate change, and the increasing uncertainty it brings, demand a focus on policies which make sense for dryland peoples.
Iri international research institute for climate and. Climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity. Case studies of vulnerability to climate change and variability in eastern and southern africa. Executive summary africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of multiple stresses, occurring at various. This book provides a major synthesis of evidence for past climate variability at the regional and continental scale across europe and africa. Climate change impacts in subsaharan africa climate analytics.
The hydrocrop model is first used to estimate the impact of climate variability on crop yields over the past three decades and such analysis is done at the crop level for each of zambias five agroecological zones. Where communities live with various risks, coupling risk reduction and development activities can provide. Since the mid1980s, the african studies cen tre asc in leiden, the netherlands, has been studying climate change in west africa in a multidisciplinary. Pdf subsaharan africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on. Impacts and adaptation to climate change and the need to highlight. Climate variability in east africa is related to the complex topography, latitudinal location. Foundations for the future 329 there are many complex and interrelated issues that contribute to this state of affairs. Climate change, climate variability and extreme events. For the empirical analysis we use a global dataset for 19802004 and design the testing strategy tightly in line with our theory. Climate change and climatic variability in west africa since the mid1980s, the african studies centre asc in leiden, the netherlands, has been studying climate change in west africa in a multidisciplinary research programme.